Record Pace in March
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports that both the number of homes sold and new listings added reached near record levels in March, 2011 which has meant a very strong start to the spring season.
There were 4080 home sales in March which was the 4th highest ever recorded and just 300 sales shy of an all time record set in 2004. This represents a 31.7% increase compared to the 3,097 sales recorded in February 2011.
On the list side, 6797 homes were listed in March, which represents a 19.4% increase from February 2011 and a 3% decline from March 2010. The total number of residential properties on MLS increased 9.9% in March compared to last month, a decline of 3% from this time last year. There are currently approximately 13,110 residential listings on MLS.
The benchmark price over the last 12 months in Greater Vancouver has increased 5.4% or $30,000.
In West Vancouver, March 2011 recorded 152 detached home sales compared to 92 detached home sales last month. New detached listings also jumped in March to 199 compared to 174 in February.
Attached home sales in West Vancouver recorded 37 in March compared to 21 in February. Listings remained static.
Thinking of selling this Spring? Need more information regarding the value of your home? Please call me anytime; I would be more than pleased to provide you with a confidential market evaluation of your home.
Brock Smeaton, Prudential Sussex Realty, 604.619.9131
March 2011
Brock’s 2011 Sales To Date
| SALES TO DATE BY BROCK SMEATON • 2011 |
4308 Rockridge Road $7,500,000
3375 Craigend Road $7,398,000
3470 Mathers Avenue $5,998,000
4302 Rockridge Road $5,998,000
3270 Mathers Avenue $5,958,000
1935 29th Street $5,550,000
3930 Marine Drive $5,495,000
431 Hillcrest Street $5,398,000
1962 Bellevue Avenue $4,498,000
2626 Lawson Avenue $3,998,000
3496 Marine Drive $3,995,000
4656 Decourcy Court $3,995,000
2867 Marine Drive $3,995,000
6130 Eastmont Drive $3,688,000
401-2265 Twin Creek Place $3,650,000
401-2285 Twin Creek $3,595,000
3390 Craigend Road $3,495,000
4339 Morgan Crescent $3,195,000
770 Fairmile Road $3,195,000
630 Southborough Drive $3,098,000
1890 29th Street $2,995,000
1770 29th Street $2,898,000
2215 Inglewood Avenue $2,849,000
3332 Mathers Avenue $2,750,000
2531 Mathers Avenue $2,749,000
2550 Rosebery Avenue $2,695,000
248 Onslow Place $2,695,000
302-2225 Twin Creek Place $2,590,000
501-2240 Bellevue Avenue $2,498,000
1393 19th Street $2,498,000
1755 30th Street $2,495,000
1468 30th Street $2,495,000
3968 Westridge Avenue $2,488,000
2559 Ottawa Avenue $2,428,000
5505 Ocean Place $2,288,000
819 19th Street $2,195,000
4705 Meadfeild Place $2,158,000
5924 Eagleridge Drive $1,995,000
5679 Westport Road $1,758,000
560 Esquimalt Avenue $1,749,000
1615 Haywood Avenue $1,688,000
4870 Vista Place $1,668,000
4776 Meadfeild Court $1,590,000
4968 Edendale Court $1,525,000
2650 Rosebery Avenue $1,499,000
3475 Mathers Avenue $1,495,000
2756 Lawson Avenue $1,495,000
1077 Jefferson Avenue $1,480,000
2257 Gisby Street $1,475,000
187 E Braemar $1,398,000
202-2210 Chippendale Road $1,398,000
4536 Woodgreen Place $1,395,000
5539 Westhaven Road $1,319,000
294 Stevens Drive $1,295,000
5163 Alderfeild Place $1,239,000
5426 Keith Road $1,225,000
466 E Windsor $1,148,000
3741 Hoskins Road $1,093,000
304-990 Beach Avenue $ 966,900
4406 Keith Road $ 929,000
389 E Keith Road $ 799,900
106-683 Victoria Park $ 688,900
#110 – 9329 University Cr. $ 418,888
#317 – 206 E. 15th St. $ 299,900
Strong Housing Demand in Advance of Spring Market
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports a strong demand for detached homes across Greater Vancouver in February, with particularly high sales volumes occuring in Richmond and Vancouver’s West Side.
For the past 2 months, the number of properties listed for sale and those sold on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in Greater Vancouver outpaced the 10-year average in both categories. The total number of residential property listings on MLS increased 14.2% in February compared to last month (11,925 vs 10,400) and increased 5% from this time last year.
Sales of detached properties on MLS in February 2011 reached 1,402, an increase of 42.6% from the 983 detached sales recorded in February 2010 and a 139.9% increase from the 587 units sold in February 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 6% from February 2010 to $848,645.
In West Vancouver, February 2011 recorded 92 detached home sales compared to 46 detached home sales last month. New listings also jumped in February to 174 detached homes vs 130 in January.
Attached home sales in West Vancouver recorded 21 in February compared to 13 home sales last month. Listings jumped to 54 in February vs 43 in January 2011.
Thinking of listing this Spring? Need more information regarding the value of your home? Please call me anytime; I would be more than pleased to provide you with a confidential market evaluation of your home.
Brock Smeaton
Prudential Sussex Realty 604.619.9131 c 604.925.2911 o
Balanced Market Conditions – January 2011
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports a healthy balance in real estate between home buyers and sellers. In January, there were 1819 home sales on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). From a historical perspective, this sales figure slightly surpassed the 1790 home sale average recorded in the region over the last ten years.
Listings in January reached 4800 which, combined with active listings already on the market, brought the overall total to 10,400 homes for sale in Great Vancouver.
These figures provide a sales-to-active listings ratio of 17% which analysts say represents a balanced market. In general, analysts suggest that when this ratio is at 10% there is downward pressure on home prices; at 22-23% we can expect upward pressure on home prices.
Richmond and Vancouver’s West Side have seen the most dramatic increases in home sales this past January with the former spiking at 22% and the latter at 12%. The benchmark price of homes in general has risen 2.7% from $788,000 in 2010 to $810,000 to date in 2011.
In West Vancouver, January 2011 recorded 46 detached home sales compared to just 26 sales in January 2010. Listings on the other hand dropped for the same period from 142 to 130.
Attached listings in West Vancouver recorded 13 homes sales in January 2011 compared to 15 sales in January 2010. Listings fell this past January to 43 from a high of 60 in 2010.
Thinking of listing this Spring? Need more information regarding your home? Please call me anytime; I would be more than pleased to provide you with a market evaluation of your home.
Brock Smeaton
Prudential Susses Realty
604.619.9131 c
604.925.2911 o
MORTGAGE RULES TO CHANGE
NEW MORTGAGE RULES
As of March 18th, mortgage rules in Canada will be changing. The move is to eliminate the 35 year mortgage for buyers who are putting less than 20% towards their down payment, and to reduce the maximum amount people can borrow when refinancing from 90% to 85% of the value of their homes. In addition, on April 18th, the Government will no longer insure lines of credit taken out on homes. This last move is made with the intention of putting the onus on lenders to be more careful about who gets home equity lines of credit.
WHY
Debt levels in Canada are currently growing faster than income, with household debt (ratio of money owed to disposable income) at 150%. This is higher then US household debt levels before the financial crisis of 2008. The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals recently released a study showing that mortgage debt in Canada surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in 2010, and 30% of all new mortgages have amortization periods of longer than 25 years, up from 18% last year. What’s worse is that over 2/3 of people who refinance or take out home equity lines of credit, are currently using the money for consumer items like boats, trips and TV’s, as opposed to improving the value of their homes.
THE IMPACT
This change may initially slow down the economy, and we can even expect to see prices drop as much as 7% over the next 12 months, as buyers who would have opted for 35 year terms are forced to look for lower priced homes. It is foreseen that this will hit first time home buyers and BC the hardest; first time buyers who are strapped for cash and BC who has the highest home prices in the country. In the long term, however, the changes are expected to lead to stronger financial household health. And really, the move should only remove the riskiest borrowers from the market.
The only alternative to these mortgage rule changes would have been an intense increase in interest rates. With borrowing levels so high, and so many people borrowing beyond their means, the Government felt changes had to be made. They felt increased interest rates would have been a greater threat to economic recovery as they would discourage business investment and drive up the Canadian Dollar, whereas they feel these changes in the mortgage rules minimize the risk of inflation while at the same time slowing down the borrowing binge.
Those who are able to put down 20% or more will still be able to write their own terms, and define the amortization length of their loan – but for everyone else, as of March 18, there is a 30 year amortization ceiling.
An Economic Snapshot
After two years in recovery, economists suggest that BC’s economy is stable and gearing up for growth. At this time, we have one of the healthiest economies in North America and many businesses are reporting year-over-year growth and an increase in consumer confidence. In fact, Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist says “improved economic conditions and low mortgage interest rates have contributed to a 46 per cent increase in home sales since July.” On this note, rates are remaining historically low and because five-year mortgages are available under 4%, first time home-buyers and young families have been able to get into the housing market. In addition, the unemployment rate dipped to 6.9 per cent, the lowest recorded since January 2009.
The Close of 2010
During the year of 2010, the Greater Vancouver housing market hit three distinct phases. We started the year out strong, carrying forward momentum from the post-recession recovery, which faded into a lull during the summer months. And finally we closed the year with continued stability through the fall. Jake Moldowan, the president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver looked back over the year with this statement, “the last two years have been a bit of a roller coaster for the real estate market. However, sales over the last six months have definitely shown a trend toward stability. This is good news for home buyers and sellers.”
Total sales in the Greater Vancouver area this year decreased 14.2% compared to 2009, but have increased 24.2% since the recession in 2008. However, we still look to the future for a full recovery as our total number of sales this year fell 10.3% below the ten year average. Looking more specifically at recent sales we can see that total residential sales in the region fell 24.3% from November to December this year; new listings fell 43.9% in the same period.
Specifically in West Vancouver, detached home sales fell from 69 in November 2010, to 50 in December 2010; listings fell from 79 to 35 in the same period. Apartment sales in West Vancouver from November and December 2010 were 17 and 12 respectively, while listings were 28 and 4 respectively.
Yet despite these decreases, things are looking good for 2011. Listings versus sales are really beginning to stabilize and we should see the market begin to pick up in the wake of the holiday season.
Homes for the Holidays – A Market Update
Housing sales numbers in November indicate a fairly balanced market. While activity on the buyer side has been fairly stable, with slight increases, we have seen the number of homes listed for sale decline each month since June (when we reached a peak). The President of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has said that “home values have been relatively stable [as well] over the last five months, [especially] compared to the summer when we were seeing some downward pressure on prices. It’s the homes priced accurately for today’s market that are receiving a lot of attention and selling right now.”
In November residential sales improved in Vancouver compared to the previous four months, with homes sales posted at slightly higher than the ten-year average for that month. The increase in sales was 7.4% from October 2010, but is still sitting at an 18.6% decline from November 2009. It seems as though the past few years have been all about fluctuations, as looking back further we can see that sales are up 187.1% from November 2008, down 13% from November 2007 and up 6.4% from November 2006.
Total listings for the region are currently at a 12.1% decline from last month, but have increased 12% from November 2009, and are balancing out quite nicely.
To hone in more specifically on the West Vancouver market we can see that residential home listings in November 2009 were 81 units, compared to 102 in October 2010 and 79 in November 2010. Similarly, residential home sales in West Vancouver have gone from 71 units in November 2009, to 59 and 69 units in October and November 2010, respectively.
The figures for apartments in West Vancouver are as follows: Listings for November 2009 were 31, while they were at 14 and 28 in October and November this year; sales for November 2009 were 15, compared to 15 and 17 in October and November respectively.
In the past year we have also seen a 5% increase in the average benchmark price of a residential home in West Vancouver. This compared to a three year change of 0.9% and a five year change of 28.3%. The benchmark price is currently sitting at $1,420,220.
We have created a table below for comparables of the benchmark price among apartments, attached homes and detached homes in West Vancouver. An additional table has been made to track listings and sales in West Vancouver over the past year.
COMPARING BENCHMARK PRICES IN WEST VANCOUVER
Benchmark Price One Year Change Three Year Change Five Year Change
Detached $1,420,220 5% 0.9% 28.3%
Attached $754,057 5.5% 7.1% 49.3%
Apartments $652,335 7.3% -2.6% 45.0%
WEST VANCOUVER LISTINGS VERSUS SALES – YEAR to DATE
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Listings 142 110 179 195 226 143 103 99 124 102 79
Sales 26 60 72 91 64 66 56 46 56 59 69
West Vancouver Monthly Comparable Sales Facts November 2010
COMPARING BENCHMARK PRICES IN WEST VANCOUVER
Benchmark Price One Year Change Three Year Change Five Year Change
Detached $1,420,220 5% 0.9% 28.3%
Attached $754,057 5.5% 7.1% 49.3%
Apartments $652,335 7.3% -2.6% 45.0%
WEST VANCOUVER LISTINGS VERSUS SALES – YEAR to DATE
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Listings 142 110 179 195 226 143 103 99 124 102 79
Sales 26 60 72 91 64 66 56 46 56 59 69
“Falling Back” into Normal Markets
Over the past four months, conditions in Greater Vancouver are indicating stability in the residential housing market. While the statistics show that we are still sitting in a buyers market, homes priced properly are selling. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has recently reported that since June, residential home prices have remained arguably unchanged, with a decrease of only 0.2%.
But things are looking up. Compared to September 2010, the number of residential sales went up 5.3% in October. And going forward into the last two months of the year, the board says “buyer demand is in closer alignment with supply than we’ve seen for most of 2010. Those buying today recognize that they still have a chance to enter the market with near-record low interest rates, while gradual reductions in inventory have eased downward pressure on prices.”
To quantify these points, MLS listings in West Vancouver for October 2010 were reported at 102 detached homes; detached sales for October were 59. This compared to the spread of 124 listings in September 2010, to 56 sales. We can really see the gap starting to close.
To gain insight into the longer term implications, we are still seeing total residential sales down 39.6% from October 2009. More specifically in West Vancouver, October 2009 saw 141 residential detached homes listed and 84 sold, compared to 102 listed and 59 sold this October.
We can also report that apartment listings in West Vancouver during October 2009 were 34 compared to 39 in September 2010 and 14 this October, while sales compared at 19 in 2009 to 16 and 15 for September and October 2010 respectively. So while there is room for improvement, we can definitely see that the market is moving in a good direction.
